Wednesday, September 21, 2005

How the BBC, Fortune and the New York Times went overboard claiming that the prediction markets had foreseen the name of the new pope!

This deserves another look. Hopefully this afternoon. But for now I at least wanted to point the article out to you.

Super Short version: The bettering markets (decision markets) may not have done as well in predicting the pope as the NY Times and others suggested.


"The questions I pose today to Enterprise Commanders are these:

* How did the prediction markets at TradeSports/InTrade fare with anticipating Joseph Ratzinger as the new pope?
* Was it really "another triumph" [sic] for the prediction markets, as the Beeb trumpeted (and as Fortune and the New York Times echoed)?"
* What are the lessons that we can draw from this string of media failures?
o Are journalists (and bloggers) just stenographers, republishing Press releases from the exchanges?"

1 comment:

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