If you have never read Fooled by Randomness, you owe yourself a present for the Holidays. Money.science found an interview with the aurthor Nassim Taleb. Good stuff.
Short version of the book: many traders are just lucky and they take way too many chances because they think they are good.
moneyscience.org : SmartMoney Interview: Nassim Taleb: "Good call TaylorTree for spotting this interview in SmartMoney and alerting me to a recent addition to Taleb's website, Quick Notes and Comments in the Old Style (not quite a blog). You might also be interested in this article from Fortune Magazine teaming Taleb with Mandelbrot. Quite a combination: How the Finance Gurus Get Risk All Wrong. "