Thursday, November 24, 2011

FT Alphaville » Randomness and the lost lesson of Bill Miller

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FT Alphaville » Randomness and the lost lesson of Bill Miller:

FT Alphaville uses the retirement of Bill Miller to discuss randomness and probabilities:

" A newsletter published by Credit Suisse-First Boston in 2003, a few years before the streak ended, calculated the odds of a manager outperforming the market on chance alone for 12 straight years to be one in 2.2 billion.

But what if Miller’s streak wasn’t so remarkable to begin with?

The statisticians like those from CSFB were considering the odds that a specific fund would outperform for 12 straight years if the fund begins investing at a specific time. But as Mlodinow explained, maybe the better question to ask is actually this: given the number of mutual funds that have existed in the modern era, what are the odds that any of them would have beaten the market over any 15-year period of time on chance alone?

Answer: 3 out of 4."

Important to remember that! 
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