Sunday, January 13, 2008

Prediction markets are not perfect

Primary results prove prediction markets flawed --
"Political pollsters weren't the only ones red-faced after the New Hampshire Democratic primary Tuesday.

Online prediction markets, which enable individuals to bet on the outcome of dozens of events, also had become exceedingly enthusiastic about Sen. Barack Obama after he beat Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Iowa Democratic caucuses.

Early Tuesday, the best known of the online prediction markets, Intrade, based in Ireland, gave Obama a 70.7 percent chance of winning in the Granite State and Clinton a 27 percent chance."

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