Fama on the history of Market Efficiency--MUST WATCH!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUkkRdEknjI

More on multi-factor models

Here is an interviews Gene Fama Jr. discussing multifactor asset pricing models. As mentioned in class, the basic idea is the same as CAPM, but the measures of systematic risk are better and the models capture risk better.

Will dividend increase be short-lived?

First of all, we should note that dividend yields are still quiet low from a historical perspective (i.e. long term).  That said, they have come back somewhat and are more prevalent now than a decade ago (when even Fama and French were writing on the Demise of the Dividend) and this year we are seeing more firms both initiate as well as increase dividends.

So what happened? Several things. The Internet bubble burst and investors (at least temporarily) remembered that stocks do not just go up. Then came Enron and the governance crisis of the early 2000s. As investors were painfully reminded that accounting numbers could not always be trusted, the signaling aspect of dividends came to the forefront (it is harder to play games with cash than it is with accounting numbers). And in the last, but definitely not least, in the US there was a reduction of taxes on dividends (remember dividends come out of corporate earnings and hence the double taxation problem).

In the following piece, the WSJ points out that this year firms are paying more than last year (when they conserved more cash during the "great recession". But the article also reminds us that the lower tax rate on dividends is up next year. It will be interesting to see whether it is reapproved.

Dividends Are Back - WSJ.com:

"Corporate balance sheets, which were squeezed during the recession, are once again brimming with cash. S&P 500 nonfinancial companies had a record $837 billion in cash at the end of the first quarter, up from $665 billion a year earlier, according to S&P.

Of course, there are plenty of headwinds. The tax rate on qualified dividend payments, capped in 2003 at 15%, is set to expire at the end of this year along with some other Bush-era tax cuts. Absent congressional action, the top dividend tax rate will jump to 39.6% next year."

Related articles by Zemanta

• What effect will the change in US tax rates on dividends have on share prices and dividend payouts? (ask.metafilter.com)
• It's Dividend Time (businessweek.com)
• Fundamentally: Rising Dividends May Lead to Rising Stock Prices (nytimes.com)
• National Fuel Announces 108 Years of Uninterrupted Dividend Payments and 40 Consecutive Years of Increases (eon.businesswire.com)
• Dividends Like BP's Look Safe, Until They're Not (dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com)
• Why You Should Consider Dividends (fool.com)