Thursday, February 12, 2009

How the Crash Will Reshape America - The Atlantic (March 2009)

The current recession will have lasting impacts. That much is certain. No one knows for sure what that impact will be. We have seen what happens when all scenarios are not considered (remember "Real Estate prices can only go up"?), so the following by Richard Florida from the Atlantic is worth considering.

How the Crash Will Reshape America - The Atlantic (March 2009):

A bunch of look-ins, not in the same order as the article, but retaining the same message:

History teaches us:
"..most big economic shocks ultimately leave the economic landscape transformed..."

"Big international economic crises—the crash of 1873, the Great Depression—have a way of upending the geopolitical order, and hastening the fall of old powers and the rise of new ones."
Ouch, that hurts...
"“One thing seems probable to me,” said Peer Steinbrück, the German finance minister, in September 2008....“the United States will lose its status as the superpower of the global financial system.” You don’t have to strain too hard to see the financial crisis as the death knell for a debt-ridden, overconsuming, and underproducing American empire—"
NY City will be hurt, but it could be worse...
"All in all, most places in Asia and the Middle East are still not as inviting to foreign professionals as New York or London. Tokyo is a wonderful city, but Japan remains among the least open of the advanced economies, and admits fewer immigrants than any other member of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a group of 30 market-oriented democracies. Singapore remains for the time being a top-down, socially engineered society. Dubai placed 44th in a recent ranking of global financial centers, near Edinburgh, Bangkok, Lisbon, and Prague. New York’s openness to talent and its critical mass of it—in and outside of finance and banking—will ensure that it remains a global financial center....
The crash's impact on the financial sector:
"Thomas Philippon, a finance professor at New York University, reckons that nationally, the share of GDP coming from finance will probably be reduced from its recent peak of 8.3 percent to perhaps 7 percent..."
And domestically:
"It is possible that the United States will enter a period of accelerating relative decline in the coming years, though that’s hardly a foregone conclusion—a subject I’ll return to later. What’s more certain is that the recession, particularly if it turns out to be as long and deep as many now fear, will accelerate the rise and fall of specific places within the U.S.—and reverse the fortunes of other cities and regions."
How much of this will come true? Will any of this come true? Only time will tell.


Anonymous said...

From what I have read I just have trouble understanding why he says this. It is understandable that we did get in way over our heads, but he gives little reason besides for that to why there will be an alternative finacial power. He tries to give examples himself but fails as he says that New York City is the most open and will remain the most open to foreign talent. The world will forever be more global after this crises is over. I think there will be a number of years where you see world leaderrs working together as opposed to trying to out-do the other.

FinanceProfessor said...

Yeah, I included mainly to get people thinking what COULD happen (thinking outside the box etc)...but I hate to agree, it is not the best written article of all time.

My take: It will be bad, as a nation we will be weaker than we were when we went into it, but we will come out of it. NYC will remain the financial capital (although the long term trend towards other cities sharing the load will continue).