Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Which Volatility Hedged ETF Should You Consider? - Zacks.com

Which Volatility Hedged ETF Should You Consider? - Zacks.com

A must for SIMM class where we just mentioned this in class:

"The tail risk hedge takes care of extreme market volatility which can potentially result in a crash. Therefore these events are considered to be outliers which normally do not fall within three standard deviations of the average of the implied volatility.

The Volatility Index and the S&P 500 basically have a very strong negative correlation. Therefore, to hedge against the S&P 500 volatility, the ETF takes a long position in VIX Call options"



Thursday, January 17, 2013

Are women better investors?

Female hedge fund managers outperformed male managers in 2012

"Meredith Jones, director at Rothstein Kass and the author of the report, believes there are two primary factors at play in the exceptional performance of women in alternative investments.
  1. Women tend to be more risk-averse than men. “Women may be better equipped to position a portfolio to handle market volatility which we certainly have had no shortage of over the past five years,” Jones tells The Daily Ticker's Lauren Lyster.
  2. The size of women-run hedge funds. “Women-run funds tend to be smaller pools of capital than men-run funds and as a result of that they’re more nimble and better able to navigate the market,” says Jones."
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Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Before Facebook Deal, Instagram's Talks With Twitter - NYTimes.com

Before Facebook Deal, Instagram's Talks With Twitter - NYTimes.com:

This one will be talked about for years:

"Facebook’s deal to buy Instagram for $1 billion stunned Wall Street and Silicon Valley when it was announced in April. But executives at Twitter had an additional reason to be surprised. Instagram’s founders “held several meetings as late as March with top Twitter executives,” The New York Times’s Nick Bilton reports. “The sides had verbally agreed weeks earlier on a price for Instagram of $525 million in cash and Twitter shares,”"

Interestingly the deal closed for about $735m down from the $1billion that was based on pre-IPO valuations. 

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Irving Fisher, the First Celebrity Finance Professor - Bloomberg

Irving Fisher, the First Celebrity Finance Professor - Bloomberg:

A history lesson on the man behind the "Fisher effect"

"Fisher developed revolutionary insights into financial theory that are still invoked today. He explained that the market interest rate coincides with the human tendency to discount an uncertain future when compared with the more pressing present. He argued that we distribute our present and expected future wealth over the consumption decisions we make now and in the future. In doing so, he anticipated the life-cycle hypothesis that would demonstrate, half a century later, why we save and how we consume."

Tuesday, December 04, 2012

Take the money: Why we make better financial decisions for strangers than family

Take the money: Why we make better financial decisions for strangers than family

This one should not really surprise anyone and is essentially the logic behind my recent test question of "what is the role of a financial planner in the face of investors prone to behavioral biases".

"They found participants were more likely to select a smaller immediate reward than delay for a larger pay-off both for themselves and for beneficiaries they were more closely related to. The decisions got progressively less impulsive and steadily more rational as the family connection became more distant. The most rational economic choices were made on behalf of complete strangers.
The study, published in the online journal PLOS ONE, is the first to show that decisions taken on behalf of others are affected systematically by the closeness of the relationship...."

Thursday, November 29, 2012

Why Should Hostess Executives Get The Bonuses They're Demanding? - Forbes

Why Should Hostess Executives Get The Bonuses They're Demanding? - Forbes:

"AP is reporting that the Irving, Texas company is planning to ask a bankruptcy judge to grant approval of bonuses totaling up to $1.8 million for its executives....It’s tough to see why managers should get bonuses for driving a company into the ground and sacrificing some 18,000 jobs. Hostess had become horribly insolvent, with a net loss of $1.1 billion in fiscal 2012 on revenues of $2.5 billion. The company also reportedly has $111 million in unfunded pension obligations."
Gee this could be a good class discussion! 

Former baseball star Doug DeCinces indicted for insider trading - Yahoo! Finance

Former baseball star Doug DeCinces indicted for insider trading - Yahoo! Finance:

"DeCinces was charged with 42 counts of criminal securities fraud and one count of money laundering over the 2008 purchase of stock in a medical device company based on insider information, according to an indictment filed in a federal court in Southern California.

DeCinces, 62, bought $160,000 worth of stock in Advanced Medical Optics Inc, after a "close personal friend" alerted him to an impending takeover bid by Abbott Laboratories, according to prosecutors.

He sold his stock shortly after the takeover bid was announced, making $1.3 million in profits, the department said."

Thursday, October 25, 2012

How Do Banks React to Increased Asset Risks? Evidence from Hurricane Katrina by Claudia Lambert, Felix Noth, Ulrich Schuewer :: SSRN

How Do Banks React to Increased Asset Risks? Evidence from Hurricane Katrina by Claudia Lambert, Felix Noth, Ulrich Schuewer :: SSRN:

Two takeaways:
  1. Banks increase risk-based capital ratios in times of great uncertainty.
  2. The increase comes largely from well capitalized banks and by reducing loans.  

From the Abstract:
"[We] find that banks in the disaster areas increase their risk-based capital ratios after the hurricane. This finding shows that banks act precautious by themselves irrespective of regulatory requirements. However, when we examine low-capitalized and high-capitalized banks separately, we find that results are driven by high-capitalized banks. In addition, high-capitalized banks increase their risk-based capital ratios by decreasing loans and not by increasing capital."

cite:
Lambert, Claudia, Noth, Felix and Schuewer, Ulrich, How Do Banks React to Increased Asset Risks? Evidence from Hurricane Katrina (March 1, 2012). 29th International Conference of the French Finance Association (AFFI) 2012. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2083732

 

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Diversifcation: good but not as good as you probably think

Index cohesive force
Index cohesive force (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

For years (at least since 2001) this idea has been a mainstay in my classes.  The benefits of diversification have been overstated.  Why?  The correlations that are used to diversify and get the so called optimal portfolio change and the change is NOT in a random format: the correlations go up in bad times.


The Physics of Finance: Why diversification doesn't work:

"Harry Markowitz introduced the idea of diversification into investing back in the 1950s (at least he formalized the idea, which was probably around long before). Using information on the mathematical correlations between the returns of the different stocks in a portfolio, you can choose a weighted portfolio to minimize the overall portfolio of volatility for any expected return. This is maybe the most basic of all results in mathematical finance.

But it doesn't work; it suffers from the same problem as the balanced man in the canoe. This is clear from any number of studies over the past decade which show that the correlations between stocks change when markets move up or down."


Click through, this will almost assuredly be a test question for SIMM!

UPDATE 10/23/2012

It was rightly pointed out to me that this could be taken the wrong way.  I am not saying the benefits of diversification are non-existent and without any doubt all investors should be diversified across assets classes.  What I was trying to say is that the benefits are overstated as they are based on correlations that will likely climb in the event of a large scale market decline.  

Short term governments have HISTORICALLY been the exception to the rule and clearly derivatives that are designed to act like insurance contracts and have negative correlations (puts for the average investor) do not fall into the category of assets whose correlations increase in bad times.
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Thursday, September 27, 2012

'Drunken' Broker Sent Oil to 8-Month High in 2009: Report - US Business News - CNBC

'Drunken' Broker Sent Oil to 8-Month High in 2009: Report - US Business News - CNBC:

 "...an admin clerk called Perkins to ask why he had bought 7 million barrels of crude during the night. Perkins had no recollection of the transactions, and it turned out that he had made the trades during a “drunken blackout," according to the FSA."

Monday, September 24, 2012

ATM fees hit record high, free checking accounts decline - Sep. 24, 2012

ATM fees hit record high, free checking accounts decline - Sep. 24, 2012:

" McBride says that the banking industry has lost income due to an increase in regulations, and that's made free checking accounts harder to find.

"Two regulatory changes in particular have cut the legs out from free checking, he said, "one putting restrictions on overdraft charges, and the other limiting swipe fees when a consumer uses a debit card."

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

CEO pay in the FTSE 100

English: Differences in national income equali...
English: Differences in national income equality around the world as measured by the national Gini coefficient. The Gini coefficient is a number between 0 and 1, where 0 corresponds with perfect equality (where everyone has the same income) and 1 corresponds with perfect inequality (where one person has all the income, and everyone else has zero income). (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
CEO Pay in FTSE 100: Pay Inequality, Board Size and Performance by William Forbes :: SSRN:


Still more evidence that suggests that excessive Executive pay hurts shareholders.  Unlike previous work this looks at more executives and at non-US data. 

Too high of executive compensation negatively affects stockholders of US firms was shown by Bebchuk, Martijn, and Peyers JFE 2011) who showed

"that corporate value, as proxied by Tobin’s Q, post- earnings announcement share price responses, shareholder responses to acquisitions and executive turnover all deteriorate in the CEO pay slice rises. This suggests a high CPS may reflect something other than a reasonable re- ward for services rendered to company shareholders"    

Now Forbes and Pogue  extend the work of team Bebchuk by going beyond the pay of the top 5 executives as well as looking at UK firms.

Their Verdict? 

Excessive Executive pay is still detrimental:

"...additional evidence on the Bebchuk et al hypothesis that a higher CPS damages company performance from outside the US....While much of the debate concerning managerial “power” to set their own pay has been US based Conyon et al ( Conyon (2011)) have shown that, controlling for risk, UK and US CEO pay levels are not as different as had previously been assumed."

BTW you should definitely be aware of the Gini Measure, it looks worse than it really is (key to remember it is a measure of inequality in pay (or wealth etc in other fields).  Again quoting :

"The Gini coefficient (G) is then the ratio of the difference between the 45◦ line of absolute equality and the curve denoting the actual, unequal, distribution to the total area lying beneath the line of equality. While the Gini coefficient has various mathematical representations it turns out to be simply one half of the relative mean difference, defined as the arithmetic average of the absolute value differences, between all pairs of incomes.
nn G=(1/2n2μ)SUM SUM |yi −yj|
i=1 j=1 nn
= 1 − (1/n2 μ) 􏰀 􏰀 M in(yi , yj ) i=1 j=1
= 1 + (1/n) − (2/n2μ)[y1 + 2y2 + ..... + nyn] for y1 ≥y2 ≥....≥yn.    (1)
where μ is the average level of income across members of the group (say a company board) and n is the size of the population (or board size)."



Abstract:


"In this paper we examine the agency costs of seemingly excessive pay awards to CEO's within the FTSE 100 in the last decade. Are CEOs taking a large proportion of the total pot (a big "pay slice") more, or less, able to return value to shareholders by better management? In presenting this evidence we describe variations in whole distribution of executive pay, rather than invoking some arbitrary cut-off point (e.g. the CEO's pay as a percentage of their five highest paid peers or the CPS), to determine how changes in shareholder value match to concurrent changes in the distribution of executive pay. We ask is the impact of executive pay-inequality a function of board size, rendering the CPS measure problematic in this context? If so how does the interaction of board size and corporate performance size, as measured by shareholder returns, explain variation in the sensitivity of the pay-performance relationship for UK FTSE executives? We advance the Gini coefficient as a preferable measure of executive pay inequality in order to capture the impact of perceived inequality upon corporate performance."

 CITE:
Forbes, William Patrick, CEO Pay in FTSE 100: Pay Inequality, Board Size and Performance (September 1, 2012). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2140204
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Saturday, September 08, 2012

New 'Tail Hedge' ETF Hunts Black Swans - Seeking Alpha

New 'Tail Hedge' ETF Hunts Black Swans - Seeking Alpha:

It is a little eearly in the school year for my classes to cover this, but oh well, we will anyways!  lol

" First Trust recently launched a new "Black Swan" styled ETF that pairs a tail risk hedge with equities, which will help limit an investor's downside risk.....The tail hedging strategy protects a portfolio from extreme market oscillations as a result of unpredictable, random and unexpected events, or so-called Black Swan events. The term was coined in a 2007 book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb published right before the financial crisis hit."

Monday, July 30, 2012

Mark Gongloff: Libor Fraud Was Happening In 1991, Trader Says, 17 Years Before Timothy Geithner Claims He Knew

Mark Gongloff: Libor Fraud Was Happening In 1991, Trader Says, 17 Years Before Timothy Geithner Claims He Knew:

"...the earliest time-stamp on Libor manipulation we've seen yet -- is a Financial Times op-ed by former Morgan Stanley trader Douglas Keenan. He claims that Libor, a key short-term bank lending rate that affects mortgages and other interest rates throughout the economy, was being jerked around for fun and profit as long ago as 1991."

Well then, that puts a different spin on things.
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