Thursday, October 08, 2009

Handicapping the 2009 Economics Nobel - Real Time Economics - WSJ

Handicapping the 2009 Economics Nobel - Real Time Economics - WSJ: "
Adherents of the efficient-markets hypothesis might say that University of Chicago Booth School of Business economist Eugene Fama has an excellent chance of winning the Nobel Prize in economics. Then again, recent events have thrown the idea that markets accurately reflect information available to investors — the efficient-markets hypothesis the Mr. Fama first proposed in the 1960s — into doubt.

Mr. Fama is once again the frontrunner for the Nobel — which is really “The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel” — for British betting firm Ladbrokes, garnering two-to-one odds. That seems rich coming in the wake of a world-wide economic crisis that is being pinned, in part, on economists, policymakers and investors putting too much faith in markets. One suspects that the disconnect comes because Ladbrokes clientele includes a lot of traders — and Mr. Fama is the one economist whose work they know best."

The article lists many other potentials. I hope Fama does win, I have been hoping that for several years. Other choices I would not be surprised by include Tirole, Jensen, and Thaler.

My guess is an economist. Probably Taylor. Stay tuned :)

1 comment:

schubie said...

I think I might put $2 on Obama as a longshot.