Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Fed Proposes Selling Term Deposits to Absorb Excess Reserves - BusinessWeek

In "open-market transactions" the Fed buys and sells assets to change the money supply. For instance, if they want to shrink the money supply they will sell something. (selling shrinks the money supply since the banks have to pay money to buy the asset. This in turn reduces the amount of money available to lend out.

Now the Fed is considering selling a different type of asset:

Fed Proposes Selling Term Deposits to Absorb Excess Reserves - BusinessWeek: "
The Federal Reserve proposed a program to sell term deposits to banks to absorb some of the banking system’s $1 trillion in excess reserves now threatening to accelerate inflation as the economy recovers."

Saturday, December 26, 2009

The Intelligent Investor: Golden Pay for CEOs Could Be Bad for Stocks - WSJ.com

The Intelligent Investor: Golden Pay for CEOs Could Be Bad for Stocks - WSJ.com:
"The first study, led by corporate-governance expert Lucian Bebchuk of Harvard Law School, looked at more than 2,000 companies to see what share of the total compensation earned by the top five executives went to the CEO. The researchers call this number—which averages about 35%—the 'CEO pay slice.'

It turns out that the bigger the CEO's slice of the pie, the lower the company's future profitability and market valuation...."

Friday, December 25, 2009

Keynes and Hayek rap from PBS

This is good. Not every day you can teach economics with rap music.

Thomas Acquinas for market prices from the Mises Institute

An interesting piece on price (which supports supply and demand as being the drivers of price) from Mises.org.

As a grocer by birth (I just happen to teach finance ;) ) I have often been puzzled at the idea of price "gouging" after disasters (big or small). A few summers ago we had a power outage. Hence people wanted ice and water. We arranged special deliveries (at an added cost) and sold them at the normal price (even though there were lines to buy them). So in this case supply was down, demand was up, but we sold at the same low price. Why? Because reputation matters. If we had raised prices, we would have angered customers who may not have come back. But the key thing is WE decided not to raise prices. It shows that market forces can keep prices in line.

On the other hand, if supply was so depressed (imagine after Katrina), why shouldn't prices rise? If prices had been allowed to rise, it may have prevented looting and sped the recovery.


The Philosopher-Theologian: St Thomas Aquinas - Murray N. Rothbard - Mises Institute

"Aquinas, in his great Summa, raised a question that had been discussed by Cicero. A merchant is carrying grain to a famine-stricken area. He knows that soon other merchants are following him with many more supplies of grain. Is the merchant obliged to tell the starving citizenry of the supplies coming soon and thereby suffer a lower price, or is it all right for him to keep silent and reap the rewards of a high price? To Cicero, the merchant was duty-bound to disclose his information and sell at a lower price. But St. Thomas argued differently. Since the arrival of the later merchants was a future event and therefore uncertain, Aquinas declared justice did not require him to tell his customers about the impending arrival of his competitors. He could sell his own grain at the prevailing market price for that area, even though it was extremely high."

Thursday, December 24, 2009

SSRN-Do Corporate Insiders Prefer Nasdaq? by Stanley Peterburgsky

Interesting take on Rule 144. The rule sets conditions when in the SEC's words there can be

Seal of the U.S.Image via Wikipedia

"...public resale of restricted and control securities if a number of conditions are met...."
included in these conditions is a volume condition:
"Trading Volume Formula. If you are an affiliate, the number of equity securities you may sell during any three-month period cannot exceed the greater of 1% of the outstanding shares of the same class being sold, or if the class is listed on a stock exchange or quoted on Nasdaq, the greater of 1% or the average reported weekly trading volume during the four weeks preceding the filing a notice of sale on Form 144."
Which brings us to the paper by Peterburgsky:

SSRN-Do Corporate Insiders Prefer Nasdaq? by Stanley Peterburgsky:
"I examine whether the double-counting of reported trading volume on Nasdaq plays a role in insiders’ decisions to move their firms. Specifically, since volume on Nasdaq is exaggerated and SEC Rule 144 ties the limit on insider selling to total volume, insiders of troubled firms may be able to use private information to take advantage of other shareholders by switching to Nasdaq and unloading more stock. Consistent with the hypothesis, I find that insiders engage in heavy selling of company stock in the months following the move. Post-announcement abnormal returns are strongly negative."
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Epoch Times - Insider Trading on the Rise

Epoch Times - Insider Trading on the Rise:
"“The Enron case illustrates one of the most pernicious effects of insider trading: It gives executives a reason to distort reports on corporate performance and find other ways to manipulate markets to their own benefit,” Strudler notes."

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

SSRN-The Microstructure of the TIPS Market by Michael Fleming, Neel Krishnan

A god article for class! Explains the TIPS market very well.

SSRN-The Microstructure of the TIPS Market by Michael Fleming, Neel Krishnan:
" We characterize the microstructure of the market for Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) using novel tick data from the interdealer market. We find a marked difference in trading activity between on-the-run and off-the-run securities, as in the nominal Treasury securities market. We find little difference in bid-ask spreads or quoted depth between on-the-run and off-the-run securities, in contrast to the nominal market, but we do find a sharp difference in the incidence of posted quotes. Intraday activity differs strikingly from the nominal market, with activity peaking in the mid-to-late morning. Announcement effects also differ from the nominal market, with auction results and consumer price index announcements eliciting particularly sharp increases in trading activity"




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SSRN-Voting with Their Feet or Activism? Institutional Investors’ Impact on CEO Turnover by Jean Helwege, Vincent Intintoli, Andrew Zhang

SSRN-Voting with Their Feet or Activism? Institutional Investors’ Impact on CEO Turnover by Jean Helwege, Vincent Intintoli, Andrew Zhang:
"We find that voting with one’s feet is done largely by institutions that have less than 1% ownership in the firm while institutions that hold block levels of ownership at the time of the CEO turnover announcement significantly increase their ownership levels leading up to the turnover event. Moreover, we find evidence of activism in the financial press that is significantly related to CEO turnover. We conclude that voting with one’s feet is not a major mechanism by which institutions force corporate change."


I sit on a few investment boards of of groups that are very concerned about socially responsible investing and this "vote with your feet" or be active has come up regularly. In all cases we have sold the shares (always less than 1% of the firm).


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A Habit of Generosity - WSJ.com

A Habit of Generosity - WSJ.com:
"Paul Zak, a neuroeconomist and director of the Center for Neuroeconomics Studies at Claremont Graduate University in Claremont, Calif., has devoted his research to explaining this type of generosity. 'I investigate the biological basis for generosity, focusing on the neuroactive hormone oxytocin,' he says in his blog for Psychology Today. 'Our studies have shown that this hormone partially explains generous behavior because it makes us feel more connected to others.'"

Monday, December 21, 2009

In IPO Market, Issuers Court Long-Term Buyers - WSJ.com

The WSJ provides more evidence that investors are not the same.

In IPO Market, Issuers Court Long-Term Buyers - WSJ.com:
"Long-only buyers—those who tend to hold the stock rather than flip it on the first day—have always been critical participants in successful new issues. Mr. Fox added that issuers 'focus less on allocations when every deal is doing well than when they do in a more differentiating market period like we are in today.'"

Sunday, December 20, 2009

French plan to force gender equality on boardrooms | World news | The Guardian

French plan to force gender equality on boardrooms | World news | The Guardian:
"In a bill submitted to the French parliament this week, all companies listed on the Paris stock exchange would have to ensure female employees made up 50% of their board members by 2015. If passed, a gradual implementation of the law would see businesses obliged to have women in 20% of board seats within 18 months, and 40% within four years.

Currently 10.5% of CAC 40 board members are female.

Job growth predicted in financial regulation - washingtonpost.com

Note: if you are surprised even a little at this, shame on you.

Job growth predicted in financial regulation - washingtonpost.com:
"Financial examiners and compliance officers are expected to be two of the 30 fastest-growing U.S. occupations over the next 10 years, according to a Labor Department report released last week."

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Farnam Street: A Dirty Word or a Dirty World? Attribute Framing, Political Affiliation, and Query Theory

Need more proof that framing and how (and not just what) we say matters? Consider the following from Farnam Street:
Farnam Street: A Dirty Word or a Dirty World? Attribute Framing, Political Affiliation, and Query Theory: "The main distinction was between a surcharge described as a 'carbon tax' and an identical charge described as a 'carbon offset'.

The tax was unpopular - no real surprise. But when people were asked if they supported making the carbon offset mandatory - which is of course exactly equivalent - the response was highly favourable"

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

UPDATE 7-Cadbury points to rival interest as it rejects Kraft | Reuters

UPDATE 7-Cadbury points to rival interest as it rejects Kraft | Reuters
:
"Cadbury (CBRY.L) teased shareholders with the prospect of rival bids and promised bigger dividends and stronger growth as it again knocked back a 10 billion pound ($16.2 billion) offer from Kraft Foods (KFT.N)."