Monday, November 22, 2010

Can Wall Street Justify Its Existence? - NYTimes.com

Can Wall Street Justify Its Existence? - NYTimes.com:

Yes Wall Street does much good, but does it take more money than it earns? That is the question that is asked in this week's New Yorker Magazine and is rehashed in today's DealBook.

"...the question stands: a strange industry exists that mints multimillionaires on the basis of stock movements and bond issues. Can it justify its existence, or will it simply purchase the political favors to continue as before? What does it do for the rest of humanity? And does it cause more harm than good?

John Cassidy, a staff writer for The New Yorker, leads a tour of the uses and abuses of finance, and looks at how Wall Street went from the fund-raiser of corporations to a self-referential trading juggernaut."


One final look-in:

"Thomas Philippon, an economist at N.Y.U.’s Stern School of Business.

“In most industries, when people are paid too much, their firms go bankrupt, and they are no longer paid too much,” Mr. Philippon tells Mr. Cassidy. But recent history shows that people in the finance industry get paid too much, their firms get bailed out, and then they go back to getting paid a lot.

Mr. Philippon says traders, who get evaluated on a quarterly basis, can earn big from short-term bets that ultimately go south. “In most industries, a good idea is rewarded because the company generates profits and real cash flows,” he says. “In finance, it is often just a trading gain. The closer you get to financial markets, the easier it is to book funny profits.”"


Does pay have to be looked at? Yes. Do agency costs play a much larger role than we like to admit? Yes. Is there an easy solution? No.

On idea is to get some semblance of risk symmetry back. Be it via partnerships, or clawbacks, or ???. Short-term orientation is too tempting when win big is good while losing big brings no (or limited) consequences.

For more on this, I recommend going back and watching the middle of the roundtable on executive pay. It focuses directly on Wall Street.

Sunday, November 21, 2010

A panel discussion on Executive Compensation

Good stuff.  Has public board members, lawyer, politicans, and a professor.  Very interesting, especially the discussion of how compensation committees set executive compensation  (i.e. what do boards do), and changes that have come up in the last few years.



Excellent even if it drags a bit at the very start.  (it is 86 minutes so you can skip around some ;) )

Here is the link. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jtH5lMpF6_Q


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Video of the Trillion Dollar Bet in 5 parts

YouTube - The Black-Scholes Formula - 1/5:

The Trillion Dollar bet, which is based on the Long Term Capital Management story (when Genius Failed) , is a staple in my classes. Here is the first of 5 parts of the old PBS video.

HIGHLY recommended! The show is really two separate stories--on one on the history of the Black Scholes formula, and one on the Collapse of Long Term Capital Management.  (FWIW We  usually use the latter mainly in class but the whole thing is good!)






The moral of the story is that absolute adherence to quantitative models is what frequently gets you in trouble. Models are representations of reality and reality can often vary widely from the model.

Part 1, Part 2, Part 3Part 4, Part 5
Thanks to Zvi for the link (and reminding that I had promised to post this!)
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U.S. Pursues Sweeping Insider-Trading Probe - WSJ.com

U.S. Pursues Sweeping Insider-Trading Probe - WSJ.com:

"Federal authorities, capping a three-year investigation, are preparing insider-trading charges that could ensnare consultants, investment bankers, hedge-fund and mutual-fund traders and analysts across the nation, according to people familiar with the matter.

and later:
"The investigations, if they bear fruit, have the potential to expose a culture of pervasive insider trading in U.S. financial markets, including new ways non-public information is passed to traders through experts tied to specific industries or companies, federal authorities say."

We just spoke on insider trading (both legal and illegal) yesterday in class. 
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Saturday, November 20, 2010

Video time: Simpsons on flashing, Bubbles, and Monkeys!

The weekend is a good time to catch up on some videos, so here are some. (And
I want my students to watch these, so I better make use a flashy article name!)

Three somewhat fun, but also pretty interesting videos:

The May Flash Crash was back in the news, so we will start off with this. You remember the flash crash. It was when stock markets fell with amazing speed back in May.
Flash Crash. Markets don't move that fast! (One of the theories was that someone with fat fingers just hit the wrong order. Now it may be just a metaphor, but the Simpson's make it interesting.  





For what it is worth, the Wikipedia article on the so-called flash crash is pretty good.


Christ Martensen does a good job with a 15 minute video on Bubbles.


and finally a Ted Talk by Laurie Santos that looks at predictable irrationality and Monkeys. (sorry if you don't like monkeys ;) )

Friday, November 19, 2010

Two videos on market efficiency

These are a bit dated (from last year), but perfectly timed for class...so I will include them.

YouTube - Lessons From the Father of Modern Portfolio Theory:





And Justin Fox:



Update: 6:45 AM Nov 20:

Two other videos that also deserve mention:
* a video asking whether Modern Portfolio Theory is dead from the president of Ibbotson?

* a shorter "trailer" for the Justin Fox book.

A Half-Dozen Essential "Business" Books : The D & O Diary

A former student sent me this. I confess I have not read that many of them, hence this post is a reminder to myself as well as a suggestion to others.


A Half-Dozen Essential "Business" Books : The D & O Diary:
"I figure that no one really needs me to suggest the usual fare from the business section at the book store, like, for example, The Smartest Guys in the Room or Liar’s Poker. If those books interest you, by all means, read them.



The problem with the vast run of business books is that they rarely aim for anything higher. To find anything of more lasting value, you must look elsewhere. So my suggested 'business' books won’t be found in the business section, and in fact may not necessarily meet anybody’s idea of what constitutes a business book. But these books have more to say about the business of life and the life of business than the more conventional fare."

Treasury Takes Initial Public Loss on GM Shares - WSJ.com

Treasury Takes Initial Public Loss on GM Shares - WSJ.com: "The Treasury paid about $40 billion for the 912 million common shares it held at the start of the day Wednesday. To get that all back at once, the Treasury would have had to sell all its shares at about $43.85 in the IPO.

After the IPO, the Treasury Department retains about a 37% stake in GM. The remaining 554 million common shares the government owns have an indicated value of about $18.3 billion at Wednesday's IPO price."

Thursday, November 18, 2010

How Companies Use Derivatives for Hedging & Risk Management | CoolAvenues.com

How Companies Use Derivatives for Hedging & Risk Management | CoolAvenues.com:
"Hedging, in simple words, means reducing or controlling risk. This is done by taking a position in the futures market that is opposite to the one in the physical market with the objective of reducing or limiting risks associated with price changes."
Nice introductory article. Good for class!

Monday, November 15, 2010

Women in the Netherlands work less, have lesser titles and a big gender pay gap, and they love it. - By Jessica Olien - Slate Magazine

Women in the Netherlands work less, have lesser titles and a big gender pay gap, and they love it. - By Jessica Olien - Slate Magazine:

More evidence that people maximize utility and not income!
"Dutch women's refusal to seek longer hours has long bewildered economists. In the spring, the United Nations, suspicious that there was something keeping women from full-time jobs, launched an inquiry to see whether the Netherlands was in compliance with the women's rights treaty. A comprehensive 2009 study by Alison L. Booth & Jan C. Van Ours looked at the amount of time women in the Netherlands spend at work compared with women in other European countries. The authors assumed that part-time work was less desirable but ultimately confirmed that Dutch women don't want to spend more time at work."

The Sketchpad: Personal Finance on a Napkin - Interactive Feature - NYTimes.com

The Sketchpad: Personal Finance on a Napkin - Interactive Feature - NYTimes.com:

Some brilliant, some only ok, but DEFINITELY worth looking at!

"In a continuing series of back-of-the-napkin drawings and posts on the Bucks blog Carl Richards, a financial planner, has been explaining the basics of money through simple graphs and diagrams."


Keep it simple!

BBC News - Can brain scans tell us who makes a good chief executive?

BBC News - Can brain scans tell us who makes a good chief executive?:
BBC video that shows how some neuroeconomics tests are done:

"Professor Douglas Saddy of Reading's Centre for Integrative Neuroscience and Neurodynamics looks on as the businessman presses a keypad to make various financial decisions by pressing buttons: "In this case," he explains, "what he is being asked to do is make a judgement about whether given a certain set of information a short-term reward would be better than a long-term reward."
While he presses the keypad his brain activity is being measured. The results of this and a number of other scans will be aggregated to try to draw out some lessons."








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George Bailey, the dark side (The Deal Magazine)

George Bailey, the dark side (The Deal Magazine):

While we all know we should not stereotype when it comes to people, many do it all the time with organizations ("Big business is bad business" etc). However, the Deal Magazine reminds us that small banks can have their own problems.

"To be sure, breaking up the banks would certainly solve our mammoth too-big-to-fail problem. But it could also touch off a liquidity crisis and wreak economic havoc. And a breakup is hardly trivial. But no matter. That small banks are better, more virtuous and capable of providing us with all the services we'll ever need is now taken on faith. Small banks have become the proverbial little guy -- a George Bailey-esque figure worthy of reverence and protection.

Is that reverence warranted?...Time magazine decided to investigate.

Time looks at a small bank in Georgia and finds that they too had problems.

GREAT for a Money and Banking, Commercial Bank management, or even a Financial Institutions class.

HT to ResearchPuzzler.

Friday, November 12, 2010

Chicago Mercantile Exchange starts offering rainfall futures and options | Business | The Observer

Almost any article that is on derivatives that uses the word "hitherto" is likely to be mentioned here! Especially one that fits so well with class discussions of why and how firms hedge.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange starts offering rainfall futures and options | Business | The Observer:
"...a hitherto unnoticed corner of the exchange is quietly growing in value by offering futures and options based on the weather. The newly minted rainfall contracts join existing products based on snowfall, hurricanes, frost and unusual lurches in temperature. They allow investors to go long on thunderstorms, short on drizzle or insure against a deluge.

Hedging on the weather is a young business – the first weather derivative was traded in 1997 by a US power company, Aquila Energy. But trading futures and options on climatic conditions has grown to be worth more than $15bn annually according to the Weather Risk Management Association, which tracks activity. The CME says typical customers include utilities, concert promoters, sports impresarios, theme parks and any other businesses with profits highly vulnerable to the elements."
Class: a great essay might be discuss limitations and costs of hedging with these. Specifically consider a small grocery store, whose sales are tightly tied to weather (in a concave type function--the hypothetical store does well in really good or really bad weather). The answer would have to include cost of the hedge, whether the contract was for a site near the location, whether the contract size would "fit" with the size of the store profit fluctuations.